Solution
Understanding – and measuring – Chinese influence across Southeast Asia
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Contact UsThe Challenge
01.A European government ministry was aiming to get a better, more nuanced understanding of Chinese influence in Southeast Asia and how it evolved over time – and they also wanted it measured.
The first challenge was defining ‘influence’ in a way that’s quantifiable and consistent. The second was developing the relevant metrics for influence that could be reliably formulated for each bilateral relationship based on available data. The third was to adapt these metrics to as comprehensive a range of national activities as possible, from government to trade to digital infrastructure.
Our Solution
02.This was not the first time the team had encountered these challenges. The Adarga Research Institute (ARI) has developed cutting-edge models of national influence, defined as ‘the capacity for Country A to comprise the autonomous decision-making of Country B’. The ARI’s model quantifies national influence across ten strands of national activity ranging from politics, natural resources, defence and security to economics and finance, technological innovation, culture and demographics. This meant that the ARI’s researchers were able to identify specific dependencies and the asymmetry of relationships, layered with expert qualitative assessments, ensuring both comparability across countries and sensitivity to country-specific circumstances.
Having employed Adarga Vantage to help conduct the widest possible qualitative assessment of the issue of Chinese influence, the team moved on to more quantitative analysis, using its proprietary models and data to measure and understand Chinese influence over ten Southeast Asian countries over a ten-year period. Finally, ARI’s in-house expertise was augmented by its network of internationally recognised subject matter experts from across academia, business and politics.
The Results.
03.The results showed an increase in China’s influence across the board, particularly in Cambodia and Laos, and indicated that China’s influence was driving shifts in the regional balance of power.
This included the major role of digital infrastructure projects and technical standards that would tend to lock in dependence on China; the emergence of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore as a regional economic counterweight to China; and resistance to Chinese political influence in the Philippines and Vietnam. The ARI’s scoring system identified a significant increase in Chinese influence over Thailand (economically, militarily, in science and technology, and culturally) following the 2014 coup and the associated diplomatic distancing of the USA.
Since receiving the analysis, the ministry in question has been using it to make better decisions based on a more systematic understanding of China’s relations with Southeast Asia, describing the ARI’s approach and findings as "a blueprint for our work".
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