Horizon scanning: experts explore ‘Black Swans’ and ‘Grey Rhinos’ at Adarga’s latest panel discussion

Speaking on the panel were Barry Marston, senior journalist and manager of the Jihadist Media Team at BBC Monitoring, Fred Montané-Willis, senior operations manager at Pilgrims Risk Management Group, and Stewart Paterson, senior research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation. 

Tasked with looking at events at the tactical and strategic levels, the panellists went behind the headlines and addressed the ‘so what’ and wider consequences of several ongoing and potential geopolitical, economic, and security flashpoints in the world. 

Israel’s military actions against Hamas and Hezbollah, and its possible response to Iranian missile attacks, were a natural jumping off point, and the discussion soon brought together threads that looked at the bigger picture. 

The potential for Israel to strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities and weapons programme was raised, with Marston noting how Tehran had responded to previous sabotage attacks against its nuclear programme – likely by Israel – by upgrading the speed, technological capabilities, and security arrangements for its nuclear activities. Hence if Israel only launched a partial strike against nuclear facilities, it would likely be counter-productive in giving Iran a pretext to establish better hidden nuclear installations and cease cooperation with the IAEA.

How much of a blow Israel’s actions against Hezbollah were to Iran was also considered, with Marston noting how the killing of Hezbollah’s entire senior echelons and degrading of its military capabilities, could lead to Iran-backed paramilitaries in Iraq gaining greater prominence; particularly noting their political clout, their significant military capabilities, and their growing economic might. US withdrawals from Iraq and Syria would facilitate the ability of these paramilitary forces to project their influence at a regional level.

China’s global interests

A common theme running through the discussion was what the consequences of geopolitical events might be for China and how the country would respond. Paterson highlighted the political and economic pressures President Xi Jinping is facing in China and how these can be influential, adding that if China's economy were to falter it would limit its ability to continue its foreign policy outreach at the current levels. 

Paterson noted the deterioration in the nexus between China, Iran, and Russia, and that as events unfold in the Middle East, China is acting on the fact that it has very different interests to Russia and Iran.

“China sees Russia as a junior partner, a source of oil and gas,” Paterson explained, adding that China is “opportunistic in its purchase of Russian oil, and will diversify its supply when it wants to.”

China’s need to maintain its strong position with regards to critical mineral supply chains – whether that be in Africa, Central Asia, or elsewhere – was front of mind throughout the evening, and doubts as to the effectiveness and impact of its engagement in Africa were raised.   

“China has not proved to be an ‘El Dorado’ for these countries”, Paterson said, explaining that that much of what is perceived to be foreign direct investment is instead simply financing. Marston noted how “China’s economic largesse in Africa is not what it once was,” and that it has less “ammunition” to influence countries.

Where next for Russia?

The consequences of a peace settlement in Ukraine that would see President Putin emboldened – or at least remaining in power – were also considered, with the question of where he could turn his attention next brought to the fore. 

Montané-Willis, who has extensive ‘on-the-ground’ experience in the Caucasus, noted how Putin could move to reassert Russia’s influence in the region, adding how popular support for Russia and a backsliding towards authoritarianism were very much a possibility in Georgia, for example.  

Any interference in the region that could impact China’s ability to maintain a transport corridor that runs through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and on to Europe wouldn’t be taken lightly and likely met with a response by China, Paterson said, noting the importance that the country is placing on its interests in critical mineral extraction in Central Asia and that we may be “on the cusp of a potent power struggle.”

Jihadism resurgent

An increase in jihadist activity since Hamas’ attacks against Israel was also discussed, with Marston describing the events of 7 October 2023 as serving as a shot in the arm to jihadist groups around the world, with the most notable rise in jihadist activity being in Sub-Saharan Africa. Marston said that Islamic State and Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups had been increasingly active during 2024, notably in the Sahel region. Destabilisation of the security situation in Africa could have far-reaching consequences, the panel noted, and with a myriad of global interests on the continent would illicit a range of responses from those with significant investments there, notably China. 

The highly dynamic risk environment in many areas of the world is proving to be a challenge for organisations and governments, Montané-Willis explained, adding that more must be done by governments to plan and be ready for worsening security situations and to respond accordingly, for example, when evacuations are required.

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