New research from TBI and Adarga: UK military partnerships around the world at risk

The report finds that these pressures are threatening to erode what in some cases are longstanding ties with partner countries, putting vital military support, including training facilities and strategic forward basing, at risk.

The indicative report considers factors including the economic and technological influences that are impacting the UK’s relationships with three countries – Brunei, Kenya, and Oman – which were chosen because of their importance as global defence hubs (Kenya and Oman) or their strategic location (Brunei).

“The research for this paper employed our unique Country Influence Index methodology, AI capabilities, and unique data drawn from Adarga’s curated geopolitical dataset, one of the world’s largest,” explains Sam Olsen, vice president of the Adarga Research Institute, “As economic and geopolitical power has shifted, the strength of the UK’s relationships – which were once much more than just military in nature – is being weakened by new dependencies and enablers from other powers, notably China and the US.”   

Adarga’s specialist AI software underpinned the analysis which shows the extent to which wider Chinese or US influence is potentially undermining the UK’s military relationships, with the following results:

• Brunei: substantial risk of the UK’s military relationship being compromised.
• Kenya: moderate risk of the UK’s military relationship being compromised.
• Oman: light risk of the UK’s military relationship being compromised.

The combination of Adarga’s proprietary GenAI and NLP capabilities with deep analytic expertise enabled the report to take into consideration a breadth of global information that wouldn’t be possible via traditional research methods, therefore increasing the quality, speed and depth of insight.

The report makes a number of policy recommendations, which are focused on the UK taking a new approach to its defence partnerships that views its alliances holistically and with a greater understanding of the wider ecosystem in which they sit. These include an audit of the UK’s alliances as part of the ongoing Strategic Defence Review to identify which allies Britain should prioritise. As a result, the Government can unlock a strategy to increase the UK’s technological, economic, and defence standing.

“The future of the UK’s defence strategy will heavily depend on our relationships, both longstanding, and new, strategic allies”, notes Melanie Garson from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change,  “To make the most of these opportunities, the UK should identify how and where it can draw on its strengths – whether it be financial services, or access to education – to translate its soft power into smart power.”

Read the full report here.

About the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change works with political leaders around the world to drive change, helping governments deliver for their people by turning bold ideas into reality. They do it by advising on strategy, policy and delivery, unlocking the power of technology across all three.

About the Adarga Research Institute

Adarga is a British AI software leader. Its products and services are deployed to allied armed forces, national security organisations, and the commercial sector, delivering information and decision advantage.

Its Research Institute produces data and artificial intelligence driven research on the most important geopolitical and technological issues of our time, employing a unique synthesis of expertise, technology, and proprietary data models to deliver in-depth analysis. Our mission is to produce research that will better illuminate the geopolitical and emerging technology landscape, in order to support more effective  decision making.